"Markets are never wrong, but the actors within them often are."
Autonomous Surveillance Protocol for Prediction Markets
The Mission (Manifesto)
Prediction markets were designed to be the ultimate truth machine. But in their current state, they are opaque battlegrounds where insiders execute trades with impunity.
Systemic Failures Injected:
- /01
Information Asymmetry
Insiders trade on news hours before it breaks.
- /02
Zero Oversight
Unlike traditional finance (TradFi), there is no SEC, no circuit breakers, and no surveillance.
- /03
The Invisible Hand
Millions of dollars are siphoned by wallets with statistical improbability of success.
ArgusEye is the answer to this opacity. It is not just an analytics tool; it is an autonomous surveillance agent. By combining high-frequency on-chain data ingestion with LLM-driven heuristic analysis (Claude via AWS Bedrock), ArgusEye detects anomalies that rigid algorithms miss.
Providing the public with forensic insight previously reserved for centralized exchanges and regulators.
Core Capabilities
ArgusEye operates on a "Detect-Verify-Expose" loop.
01. Pattern Recognition
Unlike traditional bots, ArgusEye uses a probabilistic approach to identify anomalies.
- ▸Statistical Improbability: Accounts with win rates >90% on high-variance events.
- ▸Insider Timing: Positions opened immediately preceding news leaks.
- ▸Network Clustering: (Coming Soon) Coordinated wallet rings.
02. Semantic Analysis
We utilize Anthropic's Claude via AWS Bedrock to contextualize raw market data.
Wallet 0x31... bet $32k on "Yes" for Venezuela.
No history in LatAm. Account funded 1hr ago.
Real-Time Transparency
Live Dashboard
A terminal-grade interface for monitoring active markets and live transaction flows with sub-second latency.
Social Signal
Automated reporting of suspicious activity directly to X (Twitter) and Telegram feeds via autonomous agent hooks.
System Architecture
The ArgusEye architecture is built for low-latency state synchronization and high-throughput inference. We reject the traditional polling model in favor of a reactive, push-based architecture powered by Convex.
Polymarket
CLOB
Reactive State Engine
Claude 3.5
Inference
3.1 Data Ingestion Layer
STATUS: ACTIVESource
Direct connection to Polymarket’s CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) via Gamma API.
Normalization
Raw transactional data is sanitized and normalized into a chain-agnostic schema for multi-chain expansion.
3.2 The Reactive Core (Convex)
STATUS: LOW_LATENCYACID Compliance
Ensures that every bet recorded is atomic and immutable, maintaining global state consistency.
Real-time Subscriptions
WebSocket connections push suspicious bets to clients immediately upon indexing.
3.3 The Inference Engine (AWS Bedrock + Claude)
STATUS: HIGH_THROUGHPUTOrchestration
AWS Bedrock manages LLM throughput and context windows securely.
Reasoning
Claude 3.5 Sonnet analyzes complex textual and numerical context.
Vectorization
(Roadmap) RAG against known fraud cases.
Detection Methodology
ArgusEye does not rely on rigid "hardcoded" rules. Rules are brittle; insiders adapt. Instead, we utilize a Multi-Factor Scoring System that assigns a RISK_SCORE (0-100) to every active trader.
4.1 The Triad of Suspicion
Statistical Improbability (The "Luck" Factor)
"Luck is a statistical anomaly. Consistent luck is a crime."
Metric
Win_Rate_Z_Score
Analysis
If a user consistently wins on binary events with <20% probability, the system flags the variance.
Timing Correlation (The "Clock" Factor)
Metric
Delta_To_News_Event
Analysis
Detects positions opened within the "Dark Window" — hours before a major resolution event becomes public knowledge.
Wallet Hygiene (The "Identity" Factor)
Metrics
- • Account_Age
- • Funding_Source
Analysis
Flags fresh wallets (<72h), single-market focus, and (Soon) Tornado Cash funding trails.
4.2 Risk Classifications
| Level | Score | Action | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRITICAL | 90-100 | Immediate Alert. High confidence. | Blinking Red |
| HIGH | 70-89 | Flagged for manual review. | Solid Orange |
| MEDIUM | 50-69 | Watchlist. Awaiting data. | Dim Yellow |
Economic Model & Utility
The $ARGUSEYE token is not merely a speculative asset; it is the license key to the surveillance network. We enforce a strictly fair distribution model to prevent the very insider manipulation we aim to expose.
5.1 Supply Dynamics
Operated on Solana via Pump.fun bonding curve mechanism to ensure mathematical fairness.
5.2 Token Utility
Level 0: Observer (0 $ARGUSEYE)
Basic anomalies (delayed), Public "Case Files".
Level 1: Analyst (Hold 0.5%)SOON
Unblur Addresses, Zero-latency Real-Time Dashboard.
Level 2: Sovereign (Hold 1.5%)SOON
API Access, Governance on monitor targets.
Operation Roadmap
Protocol Genesis
- • Next.js & Convex infrastructure
- • Claude AI fine-tuning
- • Polymarket API integration
Signal Calibration
- • "War Room" on X/Telegram
- • Visual Identity & Branding
- • Private Beta Testing
The Broadcast
- • Pump.fun Fair Launch
- • Raydium LP Destruction
- • Token-Gating Activation
Network Expansion
- • Multi-Market Support
- • Automated Sentry Bot
- • Institutional API Release
[END_OF_PROTOCOL] • System status: OPTIMIZED • Calibration: 100%